Scott Tinker, AAPG President, Counters Energy Cliches
at Feb. 9 General Dinner
Dr. Scott W. Tinker, President of the AAPG 2008-2009, addressed a crowd of about 120 geoscientists at the Houston Geological Society General Dinner Meeting on Monday February 9th. His talk was entitled, “Energy Sound Bites and Counter Bites.” Tinker (at center of picture above) is Director of the Texas Bureau of Economic Geology, the State Geologist of Texas, and is a professor of geosciences at The University of Texas at Austin. John Adamick (Undergraduate Awards Committee chairman), and Kara Bennett (HGS President) are pictured to Tinker's right. Dan Smith (past AAPG president) is at Tinker's left.
HGS Vice President, Art Berman (pictured below with Tinker), welcomed attendees to the dinner meeting. A first order of business was the annual Undergraduate Student Awards. Outstanding geology students selected by their academic professors attended the meeting and were introduced by Adamick.
(Click here to see a letter that Tinker recently sent to President Obama on behalf of the AAPG, in which he highlights the most important energy issues of these challenging times.)
A poster session about oil potential of Mozambique Channel, Madagascar, was presented by Scott Thornton of ROC Oil during the social hour (pictured above), after which Tinker’s presentation opened with a review of the common sound bites heard in the media. He humorously suggested that the audience learn these "Counter Bites:"
- Bite -- "We cannot drill our way out of an energy crisis."
Counter Bite -- "We can 'not-drill' our way INTO an energy crisis!" - Bite -- "The U.S. should be energy independent."
Counter Bite -- "In reality, such independence will be unachievable for several decades, and the idea distracts us from the more important goal of energy security." - Bite -- "Renewable energy will end dependence on foreign oil."
Counter Bite -- "Fossil fuels are the bridge to an alternate energy future." - Bite -- "Big Oil is evil."
Counter Bite -- "Preserve Big Oil for global energy security." - Bite -- "Americans are addicted to oil."
Counter bite: "Healthy economies rely on energy." - Bite -- "Fossil fuels hurt the environment."
Counter Bite -- "Healthy economies allow for significant investment in environmental stewardship. Fossil fuels are the path to a clean future!"
Tinker then discussed the question of whether fossil fuels cause global warming. He showed sequential periods of earth history beginning with a 40 million year representation and sequentially focusing on the most recent 10% until finally depicting the last 400 years, to illustrate that, although very important, we are only talking about one ten-thousandth of a percent of earth history. He said, “We know the Earth has warmed in the past, and is likely to cool again in the future, based on the history of climate change over millions of years.” Nevertheless, Tinker also said that evidence shows that we have put more CO2 into the atmosphere in the last 100 years, and that the data do indicate an overall warming trend. "CO2 is a greenhouse gas, and the physics work," he said. "We need to recognize that and stop deluding ourselves."
Tinker also talked about energy usage, dividing the discussion into liquids (oil) and gas, coal and unconventional resources like nuclear, wind, biomass and geothermal. He predicts less use of oil as a percentage of the fuel mix in the next 50 years and an increase of “non-carbon” energy. In the future, fossil fuels will only account for ~ 80% of total world consumption. The remaining 20% will be fed by increasing alternate energy sources like nuclear, hydrothermal, geothermal, biomass and wind. His forecasts indicated an increasing role of natural gas in powering the energy future for the next 60-70 years. In answer to a question, he talked about geothermal energy as a new career path for geoscientists, as the need for oil exploration declines.
Tinker showed a graph of oil price spikes since the 1970s and how they were often a leading indicator of recessions in the US and layoffs in the oil industry. He commented that today’s low oil price situation, after last year’s high oil prices, was predictable in terms of 15-20 cyclical recessions in the economy. He admitted that the U.S. private oil business is not “as healthy” as in the past and listed all the independent oil companies that have merged, been acquired or otherwise gone away over the last 10 years.
Tinker discussed the potential of wind power. It represents a great regional supplement but is limited in the amount of energy it can provide due to the large amount of turbines and land needed with current technology. He said that in order to replace one large coal plant with today’s onshore wind technology and turbine spacing, the US would need a wind farm the size of Los Angeles (469 sq. miles).
Tinker was upbeat about increasing the use of nuclear power in the U.S. and cited the successful use of nuclear power in Japan, France and other countries. His travels as AAPG President have taken him to the Middle East and Asia. He spoke about the pollution in Beijing, China, as a by-product of their increased use of coal to fuel their economy. He was optimistic about the chances that future leaders in the Middle East could reverse the current anti-western sentiment. The audience had many questions, and people stayed well after the official end of the event to get more information from the AAPG President.